Sunday, November 7 2021 11:19

ArmInfo.The net inflow of individual transfers to Armenia in January- September 2021 amounted to $ 670.2 million, with an acceleration in y-o-y growth from 28.5% to 56%  (against a pre-COVID 25.6% decline in the same period of 2019),  supported by an almost similar significant increase in net inflow of  remittances from Russia and the United States. This is evidenced by  the data of the RA Central Bank.

In total, the inflow of transfers from individuals to Armenia  reversed the y-o-y dynamics in January- September 2021 towards 20.2%  growth from an 8.8% decline in the same period of 2020, far exceeding  the pre-COVID 9.1% growth (in the same period of 2019), reaching $  1.5 billion. There was also a less noticeable improvement in the  outflow of remittances: a change from a 20.5% decline to 2.1% growth,  the volume of which amounted to $ 866.6 million.

In the inflow, the share of Russia continues to decline - to 41.2% in  January-September 2021 from 43.8% a year earlier (against 54.6% in  January-September 2019), having also changed in the outflow - from  37.5% to 33, 3%, but being above the pre-COVID  of 27.1% (in  January-September 2019). And the share of the United States in the  inflow, on the contrary, continues to increase - on an annualized  basis from 23.6% to 27% (against 14.3% in January-September 2019),  while increasing in the outflow - from 11.9% to 16% , but yielding to  the pre-covid level of 22% (in January-September 2019).

At the same time, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in  January-September 2021 reversed the annual dynamics from 26.7%  decline to 13% growth, and the outflow of transfers from Armenia to  Russia, on the contrary, decreased by 9.4% against 10, 1% growth a  year earlier. This improved the annual dynamics of the net inflow of  transfers from Russia to 43% growth in January-September 2021 from a  49.1% decline in January-September 2020, far exceeding the pre-covid  upward dynamics (7.1% in January- September 2019) ... As a result,  the inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $ 633.5 million in  January- September 2021, and the outflow to the RF - $ 288.4 million,  which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 345.1  million. The gap between the inflow and outflow of transfers in the  Armenia-Russia direction narrowed in five years from 4 to 2-fold,  while in the Armenia-USA direction this gap increased from 2 to  3-fold.

The inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia from the United  States in January-September 2021 slowed down the annual growth from  50.7% to 38.1%, amounting to $ 416.6 million, along with which the  trend of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the United States  reversed from a 57% decline to 37% growth - up to $ 138.4 million. As  a result, the net inflow of transfers from individuals from the  United States, keeping in an upward trend, slowed down the annual  rates from 8-fold to 38.7%, amounting to $ 278.2 million.  Note that  in the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2021, updated in  September, expectations for an increase in the net inflow of private  transfers are even more improved - to 23-26% from the previous 15-  18% (against the actual 14% growth in 2020). The Central Bank  explains this by the activation of the Russian economy and the  gradual relaxation of anti-covid restrictive measures that have  restored seasonal labor migration, and the growth of remittances from  labor migrants. In parallel with this, according to the Central  Bank's estimates, the growth of transfers from the USA will be  higher, given the more positive than expected current development. In  the new forecast, the Central Bank has once again improved its  expectations for GDP growth in 2021 - to 5.4% from the previous 4.6%.