Thursday, August 26 2021 16:03

ArmInfo. Economic activity in  Armenia in January-July 2021, increased by 5.2% per annum (against a  5.7% decline a year earlier), accompanied by an accelerated growth in  exports and imports. In July of this year, by July 2020, economic  activity increased by 5.8% (against a decline of 10.2% a year  earlier), while in July 2021 alone it slowed down growth to 7.4% from  June 12%, which was also observed in July 2020 - to 9.4% from 14.8%  in June.

According to the preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee,  the growth of economic activity in January-July 2021 was largely  determined by the construction sector - by 8.8% and the trade sector  - by 7.5%, and to a lesser extent by the service sector - by 4.4%,  the industrial sector - by 2.1% and energy complex - by 0.1%. Since  2019, in the reports of the Statistical Committee, data on the  agricultural sector are published only on a quarterly terms. A year  earlier, in January-July 2020, the construction sector, the trade  sector and the service sector were in decline - by 22.6%, 10.9% and  9.2%, respectively, and only the energy complex and the industrial  sector remained in growth by 3.4% and 1.3%, respectively.  

The industrial product price index in January-July 2021 compared to the  same period in 2020 increased by 10.1%, in July 2021 compared to July  2020 - by 10.6%, while in July 2021 alone it decreased by 3.3%  (against June growth of 3.1%). A year earlier, in similar periods,  almost the same dynamics was recorded, but the pace was noticeably  more modest: the industrial product price index in January-July 2020  in comparison with the same period of 2019 increased by 1.1%, in July  2020 to July 2019 - by 3.7%. %, and in July 2020 alone- by 1%.  On a  monthly terms, (for July 2021), the decisive impetus to the growth of  economic activity was given by the energy complex with an increase in  the volume of generated electricity by 23.5%, against the June  decline by 8.2% and growth by 16.2% in July 2020. The construction  sector showed relatively modest growth, with a slowdown to 12.1% from  21.9% in June (against an increase of 10.8% in July 2020). Then, in  terms of growth rates, followed by trade - by 6.5% (against growth by  11.7% in July 2020), and the service sector - by 3.3% (against growth  by 0.9% in July 2020). The industrial sector stagnated in July 2021,  but at the same time it is appropriate to note that during the  reporting month it was possible to reach this zero trend from the  June 0.9% decline (against a weak 1.4% growth in July 2020).

On a y-o-y terms (July 2021 to July 2020), growth in economic  activity was observed in all industries, except for the energy  complex, which accelerated the decline to 2.2%. Thus, the service  sector increased its volumes by 14.4%, the trade sector increased its  turnover by 5.2%, the construction sector - by 2.2% and the  industrial sector - by 1.7%. A year earlier, in July 2020 to July  2019, there was a decline in all industries: in the service sector -  by 21.6%, in the construction sector - by 19.5%, in the trade sector  - by 10.4%, in the industrial sector - by 2.3%, energy complex - by  2%.

According to statistics in January-July 2021, the absolute leadership  is held by the trading sector with a volume of 1.8 trillion drams ($  3.4 billion). The second place is held by the industrial sector - 1.2  trillion drams ($ 2.4 billion), the third place is taken by the  service sector - 1.03 trillion drams ($ 1.98 billion). And, due to  the lack of data on the agricultural sector, the construction sector  is on the fourth place - 160.6 billion drams ($ 310.3 million). The  volume of electricity generation in January-July 2021 amounted to  4454.1 million kWh, of which - 632.1 million kWh in July alone.

The average calculated AMD exchange rate in July 2021 was 490.87 AMD  / $ 1, and in January-July 2021 - 517.62 AMD / $ 1, against 484.65  AMD / $ 1 - in July 2020 and 483.67 AMD / $ 1 - in January-July 2020.

To note, according to the forecast of the World Bank (WB) updated in  June, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will be 3.4%. In terms of  Armenia's foreign trade, the WB forecasts export and import growth by  8.7% and 8.3% for 2021, respectively. In its May forecast, the IMF  expected GDP growth by 1% in Armenia for 2021.  According to the new  forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia (June) GDP growth in 2021  will be  4.6%. The same forecast report of the Central Bank notes  that the highest growth rates will be in the service sector - 6.1%  and the industrial sector - 4.5%, and relatively restrained in the  agricultural sector - 2.3%, and the construction sector will only be  able to significantly slow down the decline to 0 .2%.  The Central  Bank in the same report gives a new forecast for 2021 for the growth  of exports and imports - by 7.7% and 6.2%, respectively. According to  statistics, Armenia's GDP in 2020 decreased by 7.4% - to 6.2 trillion  drams (against 7.6% growth - to 6.5 trillion drams in 2019), with a  decline in exports by 3.9% and imports by 17. 7%.